Insights matter.

Can you imagine getting the chance to tell our January selves a little bit about where we would be at the halfway point of 2020? Would we believe it? The chart below by our colleagues at ACG identifies the drastic changes in the economic circumstances in our country from the beginning of the year.  First Quarter of 2020: Exogenous Shocks  A Change is Gonna Come  The period we are currently living through will likely result in some meaningful changes in the business landscape of the country. The degree to

At one point in April, Business Insider estimated that a third of the world’s population was under some form of lockdown or shelter in place order. Now, as restrictions are being lifted and we are allowed to resume some semblance of normal life, we are faced with the uncertainty of what comes next. The answer to that question relies heavily on the world’s ability to manage COVID-19—a prediction which we are incapable of providing. However, understanding where we are currently helps us to remain strategic in our long-term outlook while

The last month and a half has seen some historic moves in both equity and bond markets. Based off of daily closing prices on the S&P 500 Index, the average daily move in the S&P 500 Index over the last 40 years has been around +/- 0.75%. In the month of March, the average daily move on the S&P 500 Index was over 4%. This has happened two other times in the last 40 years—the first was during the Stock Market Crash of 1987, and the second was during the Global Financial

For the most part, economic data will show some level of lag depending on the data point and frequency. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index looks to provide some level of forward-looking insight by aggregating different data points which include manufacturing output, unemployment claims, stock market and credit conditions, and a handful of others. We look at a host of different data points, but below is a summary that might prove helpful:  Weekly unemployment claims, which are reported every Thursday morning, provide a relatively immediate read on the

While our initial thoughts are clearly on the human toll of this pandemic, we wanted to send some commentary as we systematically think through the current environment and what it means from an investment standpoint. Below is a summary of our thoughts, which will likely continue to evolve as we have more data to process.  General Market Commentary The volatility of the last few weeks is not unwarranted—the degree of the unknown here is significant and therefore the range of what it could mean to company earnings over

We are writing to put some context around the news that continues to evolve regarding the coronavirus outbreak. With stock markets having sold off materially earlier this week, the immediate impact to portfolios is tangible and warrants some communication. That being said, we want to be careful not to distance ourselves from the humanity of the world around us. Our thoughts are first and foremost with the families that have been impacted by this most recent outbreak.  We use a similar formula to think through this event as we would others like

As we kick off a brand new decade—and our 30th year of working with Matter families—we’re taking some time to reflect. Our investment committee has been reviewing the past 10 years to gain perspective on where we’ve come from, where we are now, and where we might be heading, economically and financially.   But, before we get too deep into the data, here’s some interesting context: in 2010, Apple unveiled the first iPad and the iPhone 4. We are now on the 7th generation of

Matter families are familiar with our belief in the wisdom of long-term, strategic investments.  Amidst the noise, we repeat our mantra over and over: think and act strategically, focus on the long-run, and don’t let the irrationality of the markets sway your systematic and rational approach.  While we won’t fault those who might occasionally tire of this message or wonder if there is another way, we believe it’s the tried and true way to help families manage their financial capital.

What a difference a year makes. At the end of 2017, we were in the midst of a period of unprecedented low volatility coupled with the S&P 500 Index returning almost 21% over the prior year. The Fed Funds rate was at 1.5% while the 10-year Treasury hovered just below 2.5%. Stock valuations were elevated as the markets were still processing the impact of the tax reform passed in the fourth quarter. Fast forward twelve months: volatility has returned and the

A key component of our investment process remains understanding some of the prevailing themes in the markets and what they might mean for relative asset class performances for the following three to five years. One of the themes that we have seen evolve over the last eighteen months is the transition from a synchronized global growth pattern to a more mature stage of the growth cycle, during which we tend to see a divergence in growth trends. Whether we look at the

The term “trade war” rarely elicits any favorable feelings from investors. When we consider that trade is the vascular system of the global economy, it is safe to presume that the actions and growing rhetoric around tariffs and trade negotiations are at the very least concerning. Economic theory would argue that any impediments to trade negatively impact many players while benefiting few, a fact that should not be lost on policy makers. To delve further into this issue, our colleagues with Asset

With the close of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings this week, the market’s expectations were confirmed as the Fed chose to increase interest rates by the anticipated 25 basis points. In addition, they set the stage for two to three additional rate hikes later this year. This is both consistent with expectations and in alignment with our thematic view of fixed income headwinds. This research report from our colleagues at Asset Consulting Group provides some data to that effect.